From “Survive ’til ’25” to “Drive in ’26”… with eyes wide open

 

In our last quarterly note, we talked about moving from defense to deliberate offense — “Drive in ’26.” The market is still full of uncertainty, but the teams who win in 2026 won’t be the ones waiting for perfect clarity. They’ll be the ones who build certainty through execution.

 

Here’s what we believe is the most important execution shift for 2026:

Schedules are being negatively impacted by three constraints most pro formas and a Liquidated Damage Clause can’t model well:

1. Policy (immigration + labor availability)
2. Permitting (digital workflows)
3. People (general lack of knowledge)

This is not about complaining. It’s about acknowledging reality early — and managing it on purpose.

Why immigration is suddenly “the issue of the moment”

 

Immigration is back in the headlines, but the practical impact for owners and developers is more immediate than most want to admit: labor pools tighten quietly in the headlines while projects feel it fast.

 

When labor availability becomes uncertain, schedules don’t simply move back a week — they become fragile:

• Thinner subcontractor benches
• More crew reshuffling
• Productivity that “stutters” (start/stop) instead of flowing
• Longer recovery times when something slips
• Recently we found out that certain Labor crews in Florida are demanding $75 cents more p.s.f compared to other states (FL, GA and TX lead the nation in deportations per capita).  When are we going to see this trend increase our costs?

The point: immigration becomes a schedule issue long before it becomes a topic in an owner meeting.

The post-COVID reality: permitting and closeout are now top 3 schedule drivers

 

If you’ve built anything since COVID, you’ve likely seen it: the job doesn’t just get delayed in the field anymore — it gets delayed in the system.

 

Digital plan review was meant to speed things up. In some jurisdictions it has. In others, it has created new friction:

• • Digital stamps and signature validation issues
  • Upload/portal quirks and inconsistent requirements
  • Technical rejections that don’t reflect the quality of the drawings
  • Longer resubmittal cycles than teams are used to

Owner takeaway: permitting is not administrative anymore. It’s a managed scope.  At Bay To Bay we have had to shuffle Titles and Job Descriptions to actively manage this new-normal for our clients.

WHERE PROJECTS ARE REALLY GETTING STUCK

Closeout: “We’re done” isn’t done (especially utilities/water)

One of the most frustrating trends we see is closeout dragging even after the building is essentially complete.

The finish line often gets controlled by:

• Utility and water department approvals
• Record drawings / as-builts / certifications taking 6+ weeks for review
• Multi-department sequencing that isn’t tracked early
• Final sign-offs that don’t match the field’s perception of “done”

Owner takeaway: closeout needs its own lane on the schedule from Day 1 — not a scramble at the end.  At Bay to Bay we are working on 90 Day Path’s to Turnover and focusing on utility tie ins and coordinating as-builts earlier in the project. 

The combined effect: the invisible critical path

In 2026, the critical path is no longer just concrete → framing → MEP → finishes.

It’s also:

Policy → Permits → People

And the projects that “mysteriously” drift are usually experiencing some combination of:

• Permit cycle friction
• Inspection bottlenecks
• Closeout gates (utilities/as-builts)
• Labor continuity issues that are hard to quantify but easy to feel

THE 2026 PLAYBOOK + CALL TO ACTION

Questions smart owners are asking right now:

Where does immigration/labor risk show up in our project?
Which trades are most exposed? What’s the backfill plan if availability tightens midstream?

What is our permitting reality by jurisdiction?
Do we have a true submittal plan and resubmittal cadence — or are we hoping the portal cooperates?  Solely relying on your consultants to manage for you doesn’t seem good enough any more?

What are our closeout gates (utilities/as-builts)?
What documents and approvals must happen to reach CO + final sign-offs — and who owns them? Is our Civil Engineer contracted and prepared to review and turn quickly?

Who owns “administrative drift”?
If the project loses 30–60 days to resubmittals or closeout stalls, who triggers recovery?  Or better yet, who is owns the outcome and proactively manages the process daily?

What Bay to Bay is doing to “Drive in ’26” under these constraints:

At Bay to Bay, we’re treating these constraints as the new normal — and managing them deliberately through a simple, repeatable approach:

1) We run permitting like a scope, not wait and see

• Permit logs with owners and milestones
• Resubmittal tracking with due dates and reasons
• Weekly cadence until permit is in hand

2) We front-load digital submission readiness

• Validate seals/signatures early
• Standardize file rules (naming, publishing, locking)
• Prevent technical rejections before the first upload

3) We are building a closeout lane from the beginning

• Utilities documentation mapped early
• As-builts/record drawings planned, not chased
• Watching our critical path schedule daily and reporting it weekly to exec team

4) We treat inspections like scarce resources

• Anticipate lead times and bottlenecks
• Pre-coordinate inspection sequencing
• Avoid “surprise” inspection dependencies late

5) We plan labor continuity like supply chain risk

• Manpower planning from critical trades
• Crew continuity + backfill assumptions
• Early triggers for recovery plans when production slips

Closing thought

2026 won’t reward optimism — it will reward execution. The winners will be teams who manage the invisible critical path before it becomes visible in delay notices.

Call to action

If you’re planning a 2026 project and want a clearer path to certainty, ask us how we’re managing the “Policy, Permitting & People” constraints.

We’ll walk you through our one-page Risk Snapshot that highlights:

• Jurisdiction-specific permitting bottlenecks
• Utility/as-built closeout gates
• Inspection capacity risks
• Labor continuity vulnerabilities tied to immigration and workforce trends